HDFC Bank shares are stuck in a narrow range for three months now, with the private lender’s stock still trading close to levels since early June. On Thursday, HDFC Bank’s share price closed the session at ₹977.35, up 1% amid positive sentiments in the Indian stock market following a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
In absolute terms, HDFC Bank has given a 0.99% return in three months, even though the stock has jumped 10% year-to-date and 15% in the last one year.
Going ahead, the outlook for India’s largest private lender remains strong — both in technical and fundamental terms.
HDFC Bank share price: Technical outlook
On the daily chart, the stock is holding above its 200-day moving average, which indicates that the long-term trend remains intact, though the short-term trend is consolidative, suggest analysts. HDFC Bank share price target is seen as ₹1,060, on technical charts.
“The RSI is at ~55, recovering from the oversold zone, which reflects improving momentum, but not yet in a strong bullish phase. Meanwhile, the MACD has recently shown signs of a bullish crossover near the zero line, suggesting a potential positive trend reversal if volumes support the move,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart.
HDFC Bank share price is moving between the support zone of ₹945–950 and the resistance zone of ₹1000–1020, and a sustained close above ₹1000 would signal strength and could lead to further upside towards ₹1040–1060, while a breakdown below ₹945 might drag the stock lower towards ₹920–900, said Gour.
Therefore, as per Gour, traders should watch the ₹945 support and ₹1000 resistance closely for the next decisive move.
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One, also sees HDFC Bank stock hitting the ₹1,060.
“From the January swing lows near 800, the stock staged a strong rally, surpassing the 1000 mark. Over the past month, prices have seen a corrective phase within the ongoing uptrend. The weekly chart still reflects a higher-top, higher-bottom structure, with the trend supported by consistent buying near the 50-week EMA. Going ahead, strong support is placed around 940, while a sustained move beyond 985 could open the path towards 1020, followed by renewed momentum up to 1060,” opined Bhosale.
HDFC Bank: Fundamental outlook
Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services believes that banking sector earnings deceleration could bottom out in 2QFY26.
“With weaker NIMs, higher credit costs, and muted loan growth, 2QFY26 is set to be the most challenging quarter in the ongoing earnings deceleration cycle. We estimate the growth trajectory to start gaining traction from 3QFY26, aided by CRR cuts and declining deposit costs,” opined the brokerage.
From Q3 onwards, NIMs should benefit from deposit repricing and the phased CRR cut, while asset quality pressures in unsecured retail and MFI segments are showing signs of stabilisation, as per MOFSL. HDFC Bank remains among its preferred picks from the space.
Meanwhile, global brokerage Jefferies recently reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on HDFC Bank shares, with a target price of ₹1,200, following management meet up amid hopes of a lift in credit demand, improved asset quality and lower impact of tariffs on the sector.
Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger, completed in July 2023, has proven to be a significant catalyst for performance. This strategic merger positioned the bank for accelerated growth, but the merger’s impact created stress in the growth of HDFC Bank Ltd. in previous quarters.
The bank successfully reduced its credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio from a post-merger high of 110% to approximately 95% by March 2025.
“HDFC Bank’s Q1 FY26 results provided significant momentum, with standalone net profit rising 12% YoY to ₹18,155 crore. Net Interest Income (NII) grew 5.4% to ₹31,438 crore, while the bank maintained relatively stable asset quality with a gross NPA ratio at 1.40%. The bank’s announcement of its first-ever 1:1 bonus share issue and Rs. 5 interim dividends demonstrated strong capital generation and management confidence. This move particularly attracted retail investor attention and signalled the bank’s robust financial position,” said Vidwani.
Investors expect merger synergies to continue supporting performance, with the bank well positioned to monetise its expanded customer base and product suite, he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
